NC State Economic Data for Trail Grant Applications

A few months ago, I attended the American Planning Conference in Detroit. A few of the sessions that I attended stuck out to me. Including one about what trail enthusiasts are doing at NC State. Yes, North Carolina isn’t exactly close to the Midwest, but they are working on a project there that can…and should be replicated in each state throughout the Midwest (and the United States).

For years, selling investments in trail projects has been based on aspects hard to quantify. Aspects such as quality of life and residents’ health have been the basis for trail improvement projects. Without concrete numbers, trail projects have often suffered when compared to other potential projects. That’s partially because the tools available, like manual counts and sporadic surveys, never really captured the full picture.

Mathew Palmer and Steve Bert at North Carolina State University are changing that by replacing incomplete snapshots with continuous, behavior-based data. Through pairing aggregated cellphone mobility insights from Placer.ai with business data from Data Axle, the work to prove a trail’s benefit moves beyond estimates to observed patterns. Across more than 100 trail corridors and thousands of records, they can now see, with precision, how people use trails and where they will go next.

Trails and Main Street Are Not Separate Systems

One of the team’s more important findings is also one of the most straightforward, yet hardest to prove. Trail use and nearby economic activity are closely linked. They’ve concluded that there’s a strong statistical correlation (R² = 0.72) between trail use and visits to surrounding businesses. This matters as it reframes trails from simple recreational assets into integrated economic infrastructure. People aren’t just walking or biking and heading back home, they are often making stops along the way. They’re stopping at coffee shops, breweries, restaurants, and local retailers along the way.

For small towns, this confirms that trails shouldn’t be considered lightly as a mere recreational amenity, but as an economic driver that can contribute to a community’s economic impact. That said, you can’t just build a trail and expect your local sales tax to grow or overall economic activity to skyrocket. But they can become an increasingly important piece in your community’s economic picture. Each piece is related to the others, creating a cohesive image of economic sustainability.

From Simple Data to Defensible Economic Impact

Utilizing IMPLAN, the team has built a framework that captures direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts within a defined project area. Combined with GIS mapping, communities can visually connect specific trail segments to obtain measurable economic outcomes. So, through a user-friendly graphical interface, users can turn the abstract benefits of new trails into something tangible and place-based.

Accompanying the model will be an Economic Impact Analysis Workbook to help local representatives and grant writers build credible, data-backed narratives around projects. The results of this analysis can help move projects forward with demonstrable outcomes.

The Impact on Grant Applications

Beyond the economic impact, their research also includes a Cost-Benefit Analysis module specifically designed for trail projects. The tool goes a step further by incorporating health outcomes and broader community benefits alongside the boosted economic activity. This is exactly the kind of information that can take your grant application up a notch.

It means that small communities in North Carolina can submit trail-related grant applications that meet state and federal grant reviewers’ expectations by using accessible, easy-to-use tools. They’ll have a fighting chance against larger projects submitted by communities that can hire the analysis to be conducted.

Supporting materials, including workflows, user guidance, and even video tutorials, are being developed to make sure this tool can be effectively used by everyone in North Carolina.

What Midwestern Communities Can Do

Unfortunately, there’s one drawback to this groundbreaking work for Midwestern communities. The model has only been developed for towns in North Carolina. For something to be created for use in your own state, it may be viable to reach out to a university or university extension office to gauge interest in doing something similar. They can then reach out to the researchers at NC State in hopes of developing better models for both states.

However, that would be a long-term goal as the setup of such a tool is quite time-intensive. Alternatively, you don’t necessarily need to replicate their model to make an impact. But you should start thinking differently about how you talk about your trail projects. Start leading with the connection between trails and economic development:

• How does your trail link to existing businesses?
• Where are people likely to stop and spend?
• What does your trail corridor already do that just hasn’t been measured yet?

Being able to answer these and other related questions is important. It can help sell your trail projects to Council members, residents, and grant reviewers. Showing that your trail project will have an economic impact, in addition to the recreational impact, can change minds quickly.