Nine Meals from Anarchy

What would happen if your community’s food supply suddenly stopped? The phrase “nine meals from anarchy” is a stunning warning, suggesting that just three days without food (or nine missed meals) could be enough to send society into chaos.

Food Systems at the National Planning Conference

At this year’s National Planning Conference, I had the opportunity to attend a presentation moderated by a friend and colleague, Chad Nabity. Chad is the Planning Director for the City of Grand Island and Hall County in Nebraska. He’s also been heavily involved with the American Planning Association, APA Nebraska, and the Nebraska Planning and Zoning Association.

Amongst all that involvement, Chad also operates a successful CSA where he lives. He has a distinct interest in food systems planning, where he’s become knowledgeable of the term “Nine Meals from Anarchy”.

In 1906, Alfred Henry Lewis stated, “There are only nine meals between mankind and anarchy.” Food is the main commodity we cannot live without. We’re physically and psychologically wired to respond strongly to hunger. In the event of major supply chain disruptions, whether those disruptions are caused by natural disasters, pandemics, cyberattacks, political upheaval, or war, the grocery store shelves could empty rapidly.

The phrase has been popularized in recent decades by food security experts and survivalists. But it is not just about doomsday scenarios; it is a call to understanding as to how fragile our food systems really are.

Why the Food System Is So Fragile

Modern food systems are global, complex, and highly efficient. But these aspects are also what makes them vulnerable. Some of the factors that increase this fragility include:

• Just-In-Time Supply Chains: Many grocery stores don’t hold extra inventory. They rely on weekly or even daily shipments. Disruption of these just-in-time shipments can cause shortages almost immediately due to the lack of on-hand inventory.
• Global Dependencies: Ingredients to many of our foods often cross multiple borders before reaching your plate. A drought in one country, a hurricane in another, or a war on another continent can all have disastrous impacts.
• Urbanization: In cities, most people don’t grow food. They’re entirely dependent on deliveries. If access is cut off, urban centers typically feel the reverberations before the rural areas.

The Floods of 2019

One of the presenters at Chad’s session was Jennifer Dam, another one of my colleagues in Nebraska. Though Jennifer is now retired (congrats to her!), she was the Director of Planning for the City of Fremont, a community bludgeoned by the floods of 2019.

From January to March 2019, the state was impacted by record snowfalls. Up to 16 inches of snow covered areas of Nebraska after the March 11 bomb cyclone. Over the next few days, the temperature in Nebraska surged to the low 60s, causing rapid ice and snow thaw. Making issues worse was the fact that the frost depth was still at 25″, forcing the rapid thaw to run off rather than to soak into the ground.

Soon, the floodplains around Fremont were filling up with the onrushing water. The roadways into the community were completely submerged. There was no roadway access in or out. Soon, the grocery stores were selling out of food and supplies. Yet Fremont adjusted and survived. With the airport still accessible, local volunteers flew in food, water, medical supplies, diapers, and more to try to meet the needs of the 28,000 residents.

Lessons Learned from the Floods

Eventually, the waters receded, and convoys of food and water were triumphantly led into town by the Nebraska State Patrol. Yet, Fremont learned that their Emergency Action Plan needed to be updated and adjusted to consider the fragile food system. They also completed a flood modeling analysis to better understand the true potential flood impacts, rather than relying on FEMA maps.

The Greater Dodge County Long-Term Recovery Group was also created through funding by the Fremont Community Fund. The Group is a gathering of local non-profits focused on assisting recovery activities in and around Fremont.

Fremont also conducted emergency preparedness outreach. Working with various agencies to get the message out, Fremont has provided information for residents that helps personal resiliency after a disaster event.

What Your Community Can Do

When considering the “nine meals from anarchy” concept, it is important to understand that it is more than a warning; it’s also a call to build resilience:

• Support local farming
  • Implement policies that support local farming: Support the development of community-supported agriculture (CSA), urban gardening, and agritourism.
• Improve emergency preparedness in your community
  • Disaster preparedness plan: Create or update your community’s disaster preparedness plan with a section devoted to food security. Consider a post-disaster communication plan as well to inform residents of food sources after a disaster event.
  • Conduct regular drills: Community-wide disaster drills can help people familiarize themselves with emergency procedures and ensure that everyone knows their role during a crisis.
• Prepare to provide effective communication after an event
  • Establish communication networks: Ensure that there are multiple ways to communicate during an emergency, such as community radio stations, text message alerts, or neighborhood apps.
  • Create a list of resources: Keep track of local resources, including emergency shelters, medical facilities, food storage, and water supplies.
• Support actions that improve resiliency and sustainability
  • Food banks and pantries: Establish or support local food banks that provide a safety net for those in need, especially during emergencies.
  • Promote energy independence: Encourage the use of solar panels, wind turbines, and other renewable energy sources to protect against impacts to centralized power grids.
  • Stock up on basic supplies: Encourage residents to keep essential supplies on hand, like non-perishable food, first-aid kits, and tools.

Some possible implementable aspects include allowing seasonal produce stands/trucks, local farmers’ markets, and allowing small commercial kitchens as a home occupation.

Final Thoughts

The phrase “nine meals from anarchy” is provocative because it’s frighteningly plausible. It doesn’t mean we should panic and revert to an entirely agrarian society. But rather that we should take food security seriously. That’s what disaster preparedness month is for.

Disaster preparedness isn’t paranoia, it’s a form of resilience. And in a world that’s just nine missed meals away from crisis, building stronger systems today is the best way to ensure we don’t test that limit tomorrow.

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September is National Preparedness Month. Each year, National Preparedness Month is recognized to promote family and community disaster and emergency planning.